BFCM's Record Run, TikTok's Uncertain Future, and Meta's Health Marketing Shakeup

If you're feeling whiplash from all the changes hitting e-commerce lately, you're not alone. 

We've got a packed issue diving into record-breaking BFCM numbers (with some fascinating patterns), TikTok's potential endgame in the US, and Meta's sweeping new restrictions that go far beyond just health brands.

Let's dive in.

Today: 

• BFCM’s patterns (know these for next year)

• TikTok ban upheld (what now?)

• Meta’s majorly bad news for healthy brands (what you need to know)

• Quicks Hits (how to get free money from ad platforms)

BFCM Reveals Predictable Patterns for DTC

If there was any doubt about consumer spending this holiday season, Shopify just put it to rest in spectacular fashion - broadcasting live transaction data on Dubai's Burj Khalifa.

The final tally? Shopify merchants generated $11.5 billion in sales over BFCM, shattering last year's record of $9.3 billion with a 24% increase. 

Jeremiah Prummer of KNO Commerce, analyzing their portfolio of high-growth brands (representing about 5% of Shopify GMV), reported an almost identical 25.5% YoY growth with 5.54 million orders totaling $679 million in sales.

Jeremiah broke down what he calls "the shape of BFCM" - a fascinating hour-by-hour analysis that reveals a surprisingly predictable pattern: 

• Thursday - The warm-up act. Shows moderate morning activity with a 6 PM spike, but only reaches 40% of Friday's volume. Think of it as your dress rehearsal.

• Black Friday - The powerhouse. Sales explode at 8 AM and maintain momentum all day. The key insight? By 6 AM, you're already matching Thursday's peak - making early morning readiness critical.

• Weekend - The steady burn. Saturday and Sunday both run at about 50% of Friday's volume, but with distinct patterns. Sunday's peak window shifts later (9 AM to 3 PM) and shows stronger sustained momentum.

• Cyber Monday - The evening surge. Nearly matches Friday's volume but flips the script - peak sales hit at 7 PM, with 30-40% higher volumes than weekend peaks throughout the day.

• Tuesday - The wind-down. Returns to Thursday-level volumes (about half of Monday's numbers), marking the end of the surge.

Takeaway: These aren't just statistics - they're your strategic blueprint for 2024. With consumer spending robust and patterns this predictable, success comes down to execution. 

Now that we’ve shifted to post-BFCM, your immediate priorities are:

1. Pivot messaging to "gifting" for the remainder of the holiday season

2. Launch retargeting campaigns for BFCM interactions (30-60 day window)

3. Start documenting 2023's lessons while they're fresh - this data suggests next year could be even bigger

TikTok Ban Upheld: What It Means for Your DTC Strategy

Just when you thought you had your 2024 social strategy figured out, the ground shifted beneath your feet. On Friday, a federal appeals court unanimously upheld the law requiring TikTok to divest from ByteDance by January 19, 2025, or face a nationwide ban.

The timeline is tight, and the stakes are massive.

"In 44 days, doing business with TikTok is a federal crime," warns Aaron Rubin of ShipHero. "Thousands of US ecommerce businesses will be wiped out." 

While that might sound apocalyptic, the numbers tell a sobering story - we're talking about an ecosystem of 170 million American users that DTC brands have spent years building.

Here's what we know about the ruling:

• The court was unequivocal - voting 3-0 in favor of the divestiture bill

• ByteDance must sell its stake to a US entity by January 19, 2025

• A 90-day extension is possible if there's "significant progress" toward a sale

• TikTok plans to appeal to the Supreme Court

But here's where it gets interesting for DTC brands.

The ban wouldn't be an instant kill switch - instead, it would be death by a thousand cuts. If enacted, the platform would slowly degrade as app stores remove it and web hosting companies withdraw support. 

Your existing customers might keep the app, but they'd face an increasingly buggy experience until it becomes unusable.

The timing also couldn't be more complex. President-elect Trump, who originally tried to ban TikTok during his first term, has now voiced opposition to the ban, suggesting it would mainly benefit Meta. 

This creates a fascinating dynamic where the ban's enforcement might depend heavily on the 2024 election outcome.

Takeaway: While TikTok's legal battle isn't over, waiting to adapt isn't a viable strategy. Smart DTC brands should:

1. Start migrating audience data NOW - even if the ban doesn't happen, you own your email list

2. Test alternative platforms with similar demographics (likely Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts)

3. Consider increasing investment in owned media channels

4. Document what works on TikTok - the formats and strategies that resonate there will likely work elsewhere

Meta's Health Ad Restrictions: Far Bigger Than Anyone Expected

What started as whispers about health advertising changes has evolved into something far more sweeping. Meta's 2025 restrictions aren't just about health anymore - they're about to reshape entire categories of DTC brands.

"It's actually more expansive than we previously thought," warns Cory Dobbin, Founder of Otherside agency. "Seeing brands for products as general as orthopedic insoles being flagged... this is a lot more nebulous than they are letting on."

Here's what's changing in January 2025:

• No optimization below View Content for flagged categories

• Potential complete block on data sharing with Meta

• One-week notice before restrictions apply

• Possible 30-day extension for compliance

But here's where it gets complicated. 

Olivia Kory, Head of Strategy at Haus, points to the deeper issue: "Purchase or conversion events coming back to Meta through pixel might be considered sensitive health info and a potential violation of HIPAA or wiretap laws."

The scope? Far beyond just traditional health brands. Dobbin reveals the restricted categories will include:

• Medical conditions and health status tracking

• Financial services and consultation

• Political affiliations and issues

• Race or ethnicity targeting

• Religious beliefs and practices

• Sexuality and gender identity

• Immigration status

• Trade union membership

• Personal hardship topics

The rollout has been chaotic at best. "Of 3 brands in the exact same category, 2 were notified that they would be impacted and the third hasn't heard anything from their rep," notes Kory.

The impact will likely mirror iOS 14's aftermath - but potentially worse. Kory predicts smaller brands will take the biggest hit:

"Brands just starting off with no organic demand or awareness who are more reliant on Meta to work efficiently will take the hit... more so than large brands and category leaders who often have enough word of mouth flowing."

So what's next?

"Measurement will continue to move away from user level tracking," Kory explains, "and toward more aggregate and probabilistic measurement like geo-experiments and MMM."

And this might just be the beginning. "If this is due to regulatory pressure," Kory warns, "then I don't see any way the other platforms get around it."

Takeaway: If your brand touches any of these categories, here's your immediate action plan:

1. Check your domain categorization in Meta

2. Test different optimization events NOW as proxy metrics

3. Start building upper-funnel measurement frameworks

4. Document current performance metrics for benchmarking

5. Request that 30-day extension when notified

6. Start diversifying your marketing mix beyond Meta

Meta plans to give at least a week's notice before restrictions hit your account. But with changes this extensive, waiting for that notification isn't a strategy - it's a risk.

Quick Hits

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