Meta's Decline, How To Go Viral, and TikTok's Future

The new year is starting with a bit of Deja Vu. 

Meta's ongoing efficiency challenges are making headlines again while pushing brands toward organic content and alternative channels. Meanwhile, TikTok's regulatory drama adds another layer of complexity. 

Here's what you need to know to navigate these changes and opportunities.

In this issue:

1. More Meta Pain → Why big spenders are cutting back

2. How To Go Viral → The 8-part framework you need to know

3. TikTok's Future → Where we are now

4. Quick Hits → Is SEO dead? + A 100-tweet thread guide on how to buy media on Meta

“Is Meta even incremental anymore?”

In Q1 of 2024, there were a lot of rumblings from big spenders that Meta’s performance was extremely poor. Budgets were cut by half or more. Complaints of high variability and crashing efficiency were common. 

Nevertheless, Meta ended the year as the undisputed champion amongst DTC marketing channels…

But, these issues created a seed of doubt. One that has blossomed into the growing contention that diversifying budget away from Meta was becoming a requirement for e-commerce brands. 

Q1 of 2025 is not quashing those concerns. In fact, we’re again seeing reports of reduced or even an untenable lack of efficiency on Meta. 

Ash Melwani, CMO of Obvi notes above he has had to drastically cut spend from $1M per month in 2024 in the face of poor results. 

Sean Frank has also admitted to dropping budgets and mounting doubts that it can be an effective prospecting channel in 2025. 

In a recent edition of his personal newsletter (you can sign up for it here), Matt Bertulli of Pela Case notes that his company is pivoting to high-velocity content creation in part due to Meta’s inefficiency at the top of the funnel:

More and more, Meta’s reputation is that of a marketing channel for mid-to-bottom funnel demand capture, rather than TOFU demand creation. We may even see renewed interest in classic forms like linear TV and direct mail as marketers shift budgets and test new (or in this case, old) channels. 

Cody Pfloker, CEO of Jones Road Beauty echoes these sentiments and shares new tactics they are testing: 

Summary:

• Much higher volume of creative. Talking 10x our current output. But each 1/10th will be very different creative

• Credible macro influencer whitelisting and partnership

• More upper and mid funnel campaigns

• Running trough different pages - Low budget, slow baked interest or age-targeted campaigns to get the algo learning in that direction

Takeaway: We’ll let David sum it up for us: 

An 8-part framework for going viral

If you’re a brand looking to pivot to content creation in the face of Meta’s issues, you’re going to want to know how to effectively gather eyeballs and capture attention. 

One of the masters of the craft is Jenny Hoyos, who at 18 has over 7 million YouTube subscribers and has garnered hundreds of millions of views on her shorts. 

Jenny has been interviewed by Jay Clouse and Shaan Puri (link above) about how she can make practically anything go viral. 

Here is a rundown of key insights from both videos:

1. A Well-Defined Video Structure (for Shorts)

• Hook Immediately: Use powerful first-second visuals + strong keywords or actions.

• Foreshadow: Let viewers know exactly what payoff or outcome is coming.

• Story with Tension: Maintain momentum via “but/therefore” conflicts.

• End with a Bang: Reward curiosity with a real payoff—or a twist that drives rewatching.

2. Make It Personal (Even If It’s “Small” Stakes)

• Relatable Why: A personal or ironic reason (“I need a new kitchen, so I’m selling my family’s stuff to raise money!”) hooks viewers more than big money alone.

• Family & Relationships: Scenes with a mother, friend, or partner can be more emotionally resonant and drive higher engagement.

3. Find the “Knowledge Gap” & Sharability

• Audience Curiosity: Pose a direct question that demands an answer: “Which fast-food chain has the best dollar menu?”

• Surprising or Funny Twists: If it’s shareable, viewers will send it around—sometimes more important than raw retention.

4. Retention & Rewatching

• Aim High: 90%+ retention is a good internal benchmark for short-form success.

• Easter Eggs & Subtle Twists: Encourage people to watch multiple times (“Did you catch the hidden item in the background?”).

• Don’t Over-Obsess: Retention alone doesn’t guarantee virality; shareability, novelty, and viewer satisfaction are also huge.

5. Platform Nuances

• YouTube Shorts: Slightly longer is okay (30-40s). More structured, story-based.

• TikTok: Often faster hits (10-20s). Grab attention quickly, can be less narrative and more rapid-fire.

• Instagram Reels: Heavy on visuals and subtitles; strong for share-to-stories features.

6. Consistent Branding & “Why”

• Core Theme: Jenny’s brand is “fun on a low budget.” In fact, she’s known as “Mr. Least” because her content is all about being super cheap. 

• Authenticity Builds Trust: Over time, viewers learn they’ll get a satisfying, straightforward story from you—so they stick around.

7. Long Form vs. Short Form

• Two Extremes: Jenny believes future content success lies in either quick, addictive short-form or deep, 20+ minute pieces.

• Leverage Shorts as a Funnel: Great for massive top-of-funnel awareness. Some portion of that audience can convert into deeper, long-form fans.

8. Testing & Data-Driven Iteration

• Scrape & Label: Tag your videos by theme, style, or format to see what outperforms your channel average.

• Outlier Analysis: Compare each video’s results to your own baseline, not just raw view counts. Focus on videos that vastly exceed your norm.

Here’s how you can start applying these insights:

Idea Generation

• Brainstorm mundane or everyday topics.

• Inject novelty, complexity, or personal stakes to create curiosity.

• Ask: “What’s the final question being answered?”

First-Second Visual & Hook

• Start with a power word or strong image that pops.

• Show immediate motion or conflict (“I’m about to because !”).

Story Flow & Conflict

• Use “but/therefore” to create quick pivots, surprising hurdles, or changes.

• Keep viewers on the edge by adding subtle tension or comedic payoffs.

Payoff & Twist

• Deliver on your promise—but consider a final, playful, or emotional twist.

• Encourage rewatching by planting hidden jokes, objects, or behind-the-scenes illusions.

Measure & Adjust

• Look at watch metrics (scroll-through rate, retention), but also shares and comments.

• Compare to your personal channel average to find what truly “overperforms.”

Takeaway: How much would your brand have to pay for half a billion views on YouTube? And we’re not talking “3-second then click skip” views, but impressions with high retention and re-watch rates. 

Figuring out the content code on platforms like YouTube or TikTok (more on that next) can be a truly massive unlock in the time of rising CACs and CPMs on core marketing channels. 

TikTok is still alive! Sort of.

While Meta's efficiency issues push brands toward organic content and alternative channels, the TikTok situation adds another wrinkle to an already complex marketing landscape. But before you pull the plug on your TikTok strategy, here's what's actually happening and what it means for your brand…

The Current State of Play

Trump's executive order has created a 75-day safe harbor where you can keep running your TikTok operations without fear of penalties or legal issues. The platform's 170M US users still have access, though new downloads are paused]. 

This means your existing audience is intact, but growth may be temporarily limited.

Who's Looking to Buy

There's no shortage of interested parties trying to "save" TikTok, and frankly, the list reads like a who's who of tech and media:

• Elon Musk leads the pack with backing from both Trump and Beijing

• Oracle's Larry Ellison (they already run TikTok's US data infrastructure)

• MrBeast is making moves with various investor groups

• The People's Bid consortium has put $20B in cash on the table

The numbers being thrown around? Anywhere from $40-80B for US operations. Not exactly pocket change.

The Proposed Structure

Trump wants a 50-50 split between US ownership and... well, we're not entirely sure yet. This actually conflicts with the current law requiring an 80% divestiture from ByteDance, so expect some political maneuvering ahead.

What's Still Working

Despite the headlines, it's mostly business as usual on the platform:

• TikTok Shop keeps humming along

• Creators are still creating

• The ad platform remains stable

• Your existing campaigns can continue running

Takeaway: The SCOTUS decision made it feel like TikTok's days were numbered, but the reality is far less dramatic (for now).

 With Trump's explicit protection during this 75-day window and multiple heavyweights vying for ownership, the platform isn't going anywhere. 

In the interim, keep your TikTok engines running while developing platform-agnostic content strategies as insurance. After all, if there's one thing we've learned from Meta's struggles, it's that diversification is never a bad idea.

Quick Hits:

• 9 prompts to help you generate emotionally driven headlines

• Check out this 100-tweet thread on how to spend on Meta (profitably)

• Perplexity launches Perplexity Assistant, an app to help you book dinners, draft emails, call for a ride, and more.

• Is SEO dead? The challenges presented by Google, ChatGPT, and AI.