📉 Macro: The End of Easy BFCM Growth

Mastercard Economics Institute forecasts 3.6% retail sales growth for November-December 2025. On the surface, that looks like reasonable, steady growth heading into the holidays.

But underneath that modest growth number, the cost structure that built the DTC playbook has fundamentally broken. 

Four margin pressures are hitting simultaneously, making traditional BFCM strategy financially destructive.

1) Input costs spiked across popular holiday categories

Mastercard's tariff analysis shows holiday staples took sharp hikes: Christmas trees jumped from 8.4% to 26.9%, clothing hit 25.4%, and toys reached 20-22.4%. Those increases land right as volumes peak, so every unit carries less profit before promotions.

2) Discount dynamics shifted

Gartner reports that 40% of consumers expect fewer discounts this holiday season, an 8-point increase from last year. Shoppers still want value, but they’re not counting on across-the-board doorbusters. This favors targeted incentives, early-access positioning, and loyalty/VIP perks over margin-killing site-wide slashes.

3) Acquisition costs are inflating exactly when you need them most

Meta and TikTok CPMs begin inflating by mid-October, often doubling by Thanksgiving. Brands that wait until November to test pay the highest prices for the noisiest window. Every misstep is punished at peak CPMs.

4) You're losing control of the customer journey

Consumer preference for brand websites collapsed from 61% in 2023 to just 40% in 2025 as shoppers migrate to retail channels they view as more reliable and deal-friendly. On those platforms, you’re competing side by side with rivals, price comparisons are instant, and loyalty is diluted.

This creates an impossible equation for the old BFCM playbook. 

Higher input costs plus lower pricing power plus peak acquisition costs plus reduced channel control. Even modest growth becomes a problem when your costs are rising faster than your ability to price accordingly. 

Smart operators aren’t chasing screenshots of “record weekends.” They’re restructuring Q4 around profit per visitor. That means:

• Model margins before marketing. Set SKU-level discount ceilings using tariff-adjusted COGS and contribution margin targets, so promo planning can’t blow up unit economics.

• Pull demand creation forward. Build list and VIP segments in Sept/Oct, then convert via email/SMS in Nov—shifting spend from peak auctions to owned channels.

• Meet shoppers where they buy (and capture data back). Treat marketplaces/retailer apps as distribution and attach first-party data capture (warranty, registration, post-purchase flows) to bring those customers into your ecosystem.

• Optimize for profit per visitor, not screenshots. Evaluate campaigns on contribution margin and LTV, even if the topline looks flat versus last year’s “record weekend.”

Takeaway: The easy money era of BFCM is over. What's replacing it requires margin discipline, early execution, and systematic thinking about the entire 90-day window.

Stop Digital Shoplifting Before It Kills Your BFCM Margins

During peak season, you're focused on conversion and volume. Digital shoplifters know this, and they exploit it. 

"Friendly fraud" spikes during BFCM as bad actors place orders they plan to dispute later, knowing merchants are too busy to verify.

Most fraud tools only catch stolen cards, missing the $125B in revenue lost to customers who buy, use, then claim they "never received" the product.

Chargeflow Prevent just launched to stop digital shoplifting at the source. 

Instead of declining transactions upfront (killing your approval rates when you need them most), Prevent analyzes customer identity across 15,000+ merchants post-purchase. When a high-risk identity is flagged, orders can be automatically held for verification before shipping

The result: 90% fraud reduction with zero unnecessary declines. 

Perfect for BFCM when every legitimate customer matters.

And they're making it easy to test. Through December 31st, get your first 1,000 transactions on the house, then 50% off after that.

See how much fraud you're missing. Try Prevent now →

📊 Trends: The BFCM Arbitrage Most Brands Are Missing

The holiday cycle isn’t one surge anymore, it’s three.

A big chunk of shoppers decide early, before November 1. Then the 10 days before Black Friday become a browsing stampede. And a long tail pushes well into December. 

Most operators pour spend into the middle and miss the edges, where costs are lower and conversion can be cleaner.

Here’s how the phases actually behave:

• Early deciders (late Oct–early Nov): They’re buying while most brands are still “warming up.” Competition is lighter, CPMs are lower, and owned audiences convert without the tax of peak auctions.

• Compressed surge (10 days pre-BFCM): Browsing spikes, everyone piles in, CPMs peak, and marginal tests get punished.

• Extended buyers (Dec → last ship dates): A huge slice of revenue lands after Cyber Week. Brands that stay live with smart segmentation catch incremental wins while others go dark.

Channel shift amplifies the arbitrage. When decisions get made, shoppers choose the fastest path to value. 

This year, a clear majority plan to buy through retailer ecosystems (58% sites; 43% apps), while brand destinations lag (30% sites; 12% apps) and social shopping slips to just 7% (–3 pts YoY). 

In that context, placement and timing beat brand narrative at the moment of choice.

If you want the advantage the data points to, run this sequence:

• Front-load demand: Launch your strongest offers in early November, not just the week of. Build waitlists and VIP segments in October so you’re converting from owned channels when CPMs are sane.

• Treat the surge like a conversion window, not a testing window: Lock creative and offers before mid-November; use that 10-day spike to harvest, not learn.

• Stay live into December with purpose: Shift to shipping-deadline urgency, curated bundles, and replen-friendly SKUs. Keep retail placements tight, and let email/SMS carry high-intent segments the rest of the way.

• Follow the shopper, then bring them home: Use retail/marketplace presence as distribution, but attach data capture (warranty, registration, post-purchase flows) so those buyers graduate into your owned ecosystem.

Takeaway: The arbitrage isn’t in the middle where it’s loud and expensive, it’s at the edges where timing, placement, and owned audiences compound.

⚙️ Tactics: The 90-Day System That Drives Profit

Operators who win Q4 don’t chase a weekend. They build a 90-day system that front-loads demand, orchestrates channels when the market is noisiest, and then compounds that spike into Q1.

Here’s the playbook:

1) Start before it’s crowded

Subscriber quality is the leverage point. Attentive’s data shows that subscribers acquired in June–mid-November delivered 14% higher AOV during Cyber Week than prior subscribers, and while BFCM-week signups were only 1.7% of lists, they drove 33% of revenue. 

That’s the signal: use October to grow VIP and early-access audiences so you’re converting from owned channels when auctions surge. 

2) Orchestrate SMS + email with intent

Volume helps, but only when it’s sequenced. Brands that increased SMS sends 2.5–3× during BFCM saw a 626% revenue lift. Make SMS your first announcement for speed, then let email carry depth (offer details, bundles, reviews). 

In SMS, percentage-off frames convert about 10% higher than dollar amounts, and second-person language lifts click-through by ~5%, small edges that add up when every message competes. 

3) Respect peak-day timing 

Carriers choke during the rush. On Black Friday/Cyber Monday, send before 10am ET or after 3pm ET to avoid the heaviest congestion; treat the middle of the day like a delivery tax on time-sensitive comms. 

4) Make flows do the heavy lifting

During BFCM, triggered journeys become profit engines. 

Welcome flows converted at 11% (BF) and 10% (CM) and accounted for $141M in revenue; cart-abandon flows recovered $16.2M in same-day revenue across BF/CM alone. 

Update copy for BFCM, add extra touchpoints, and shorten delays to match compressed decisions, then schedule automatic reversion once promos end. 

5) Extend the spike into Q1 

Treat Cyber Week as the start of a retention arc, not the finish line. Layer 30/60/90-day sequences: 

• Post-purchase education and cross-sell at 30 days

• Replenishment + surveys at 60

• VIP-only drops at 90

Brands that run BFCM inside a retention system consistently out-earn those that treat it as a one-off surge. 

Takeaway: The loudest brand rarely wins BFCM—the earliest one does. Get intent cheap, convert it when auctions are brutal, and let automation do the heavy lifting after the noise dies.