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The Haus Report That’s Making DTC Operators Rethink Their Ad Budgets
Budget, measurement, and structure errors killing growth
Why Your Best Meta Campaigns Are Getting Killed
What 640 incrementality tests reveal about the massive strategic error costing DTC brands millions
Most weeks, we dive into tactical optimizations and platform updates. But this week, we're stepping back to deep dive into research that fundamentally challenges how most DTC brands approach Meta advertising.
Haus just dropped findings from 640 incrementality tests across brands burning millions on Meta. The results expose three critical strategic errors that explain why rising CACs and stagnant growth plague even "successful" advertisers.
Today:
The 70/30 budget flip backed by real incrementality data
Why post-treatment effects reveal your true winners
How campaign structure determines long-term business impact
Let’s dive in 👇
640 incrementality tests.
Hundreds of brands across all major verticals.
Billions in ad spend.
One blueprint for smarter decisions.
The Meta Report is here. Link in the replies. ⬇️
— Haus (@HausAnalytics)
6:48 PM • Jul 28, 2025
The 70/30 budget allocation that actually drives growth
Brands allocate only 7% of daily budget to upper-funnel campaigns despite them driving 3x better incrementality than lower-funnel.
The Haus study measured true incrementality across 640 campaign tests. Upper-funnel consistently demolished lower-funnel across every metric that actually matters for your business.
What Actually Drives Growth
Here's what the incrementality data revealed:
Non-DTC Lift: 63% (upper-funnel) vs 16% (lower-funnel)
New Customer %: 21% (upper-funnel) vs 16% (lower-funnel)
Post-Treatment Window Lift: 45% (upper-funnel) vs 9% (lower-funnel)
Your reach campaigns drive awareness that converts through direct traffic, email, organic search. Meta can't track any of this, so these campaigns look like money pits while actually generating your highest-value customers.
The New Framework
Based on the report, here’s the optimal allocation:
70% budget: Upper/mid-funnel (reach, video views, brand awareness)
30% budget: Lower-funnel (conversion campaigns, retargeting)
Start conservative. Move 15-20% of conversion spend to reach and video view campaigns. Set minimum 30-day testing periods—upper-funnel needs time to demonstrate incrementality.
Resist the urge to optimize daily based on platform metrics.
Your reach campaigns will look terrible while building the sustainable growth that conversion campaigns steal credit for later.
While we're talking strategy, here's an upcoming session you won’t want to miss…
Live Workshop: The AOV Growth System Behind 500K+ Customers
Acquisition costs are up, margins are tighter, and brands that can't grow AOV profitably are getting squeezed out. The operators who've cracked this are scaling while others stagnate.
Ron Shah (Obvi CEO) and Martins Lasmanis (Supliful CEO) are going live on August 12th to break down the AOV strategies behind sustainable revenue growth.
This is a tactical deep-dive into the systems separating scaling brands from those hitting plateau.
What you'll learn:
✅ The plug-and-play framework that added $1.7M in 90 days for one brand
✅ Why most upsell strategies kill conversion rates and what drives success instead
✅ How to launch new product offers without inventory, COGS, or logistics risk
✅ The psychology behind customer "yes" vs "no" decisions at checkout
Ron's scaling Obvi past 500K customers using these exact systems. Martins built the infrastructure letting brands launch new products without supply chain headaches.
→ Register for the live session
Now back to the Meta deep dive…
Post-Treatment Effects Expose Your Real Winners
The most revealing insight from the study: what happens after campaigns stop running.
Upper-funnel campaigns showed 45% post-treatment window lift vs just 9% for lower-funnel.
This exposes the fundamental difference between campaigns that build lasting business value and those that simply harvest existing demand.
The Compound Effect
Post-treatment lift measures conversions that continue flowing after you stop paying for ads. It's the closest thing to measuring actual brand building vs demand mining.
Upper-funnel campaigns create lasting awareness that drives:
Direct website visits weeks after ad exposure
Branded search queries triggered by your content
Word-of-mouth that starts with your reach campaigns
Email conversions from subscribers who discovered you through brand awareness
Lower-funnel campaigns show minimal post-treatment effects because they target users already in buying mode. Once you stop paying, the conversions stop flowing.
The Attribution Blindness
Meta has no way to claim credit for post-treatment conversions. Your most profitable campaigns look like disasters in reporting while building sustainable competitive advantages.
This explains why brands optimizing for platform ROAS often see declining efficiency over time—they're systematically defunding the campaigns that build long-term growth in favor of those that steal credit from organic channels.
The Measurement Framework
Track business metrics independently of platform attribution:
Direct traffic volume and conversion rates
Branded search query growth
Email subscriber acquisition and engagement
Customer lifetime value by acquisition source
Set up conversion lift studies for campaigns spending $2,000+ over 14-day periods. Compare platform attribution to actual incrementality before making budget decisions.
Campaign Structure That Builds Long-Term Value
Campaign structure determines whether you're building sustainable growth or mining existing demand.
Different funnel levels serve distinct strategic purposes, and the performance data shows why integrated approaches outperform single-objective optimization.
Upper-Funnel: The Growth Engine
Strategic purpose: Build total addressable market and lasting brand awareness
Performance characteristics: High incrementality, low platform attribution, strong post-treatment effects
Optimal structure:
Reach and video view objectives
Broad targeting with minimal restrictions
Brand-focused creative emphasizing value proposition
14+ day learning periods with incrementality measurement
Mid-Funnel: The Efficiency Bridge
The study found mid-funnel campaigns achieve -14% DTC iROAS vs -22% for upper-funnel, while maintaining -85% daily spend efficiency vs -93% for upper-funnel.
Strategic purpose: Balance platform optimization with incrementality benefits
Performance characteristics: Better platform metrics than upper-funnel, incrementality advantages over lower-funnel
Optimal structure:
Traffic and engagement objectives with conversion tracking
Interest-based targeting with broader parameters
Educational content driving product consideration
Weekly performance reviews, monthly budget adjustments
Lower-Funnel: The Conversion Machine
Strategic purpose: Convert existing demand and high-intent audiences
Performance characteristics: Strong platform attribution, limited incrementality, minimal post-treatment effects
Optimal structure:
Conversion and catalog sales objectives
Retargeting, lookalikes, high-intent segments
Product-focused creative with clear calls-to-action
Daily optimization within broader strategic framework
The Integration Strategy
Run all three levels simultaneously rather than sequential funnel approaches. The study shows brands achieve optimal incrementality through integrated strategies where upper-funnel builds awareness that lower-funnel converts.
Track cross-campaign influence: how upper-funnel exposure affects lower-funnel conversion rates, customer acquisition costs, and lifetime value metrics.

These insights come from Haus's comprehensive analysis of 640 incrementality tests measuring actual business impact rather than platform attribution. The study provides detailed methodology for measuring true campaign incrementality and restructuring strategies around real growth drivers.
For operators ready to move beyond dashboard metrics to sustainable business building, this research exposes the strategic shifts that separate growing brands from those stuck in CAC spirals.
Quick Hits
Haus's full Meta Report breaks down the incrementality testing methodology. Complete frameworks for setting up conversion lift studies and measuring what actually drives growth instead of platform theater.
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