There are more than 170 million active TikTok users in the US. More than  1 million of them are creators. The platform generated over $16 billion in America last year. And all of that might be coming to an end. 

With a TikTok ban on the horizon, we are divided into two camps. 

One is more faith-based. 

It’s the one that simply refuses to believe TikTok is actually going to go. Which entails a semi-divine intervention from the Supreme Court or… Donald Trump. 

Meanwhile, the other camp is preparing for the worst-case scenario. 

Are you including TikTok in your marketing plans for next year?

This week: 

• Preparing for the TikTok ban - analysis by Dr. Jonathan Snow

• They’re doing work - your ads, even if it doesn’t look like it

• IG’s new Reels Sandbox - Trial Reels FTW

• Quick Hits ← Has Cody found the next, big marketing channel?

“10% of sales should coming from referrals”

Hey there! I’m Luke Yarnton, Founder of The Rave and a self-proclaimed referral marketing nerd 🤓. I’m obsessed with building referral programs that unlock real value.

• I’ve studied all the best cases (like Harry’s) and worked with 300+ Shopify Plus brands

• Helped companies build “referral armies” driving 10% of revenue (most programs only do 2%)

• Generated over $5M in referral transactions this year alone

Give me 15 minutes, and I’ll show you how to tap into your customers’ networks. Plus, I’ll buy you lunch ($20 UberEats voucher)!

👉 Book a no-pressure chat with me!

How to Prepare for the TikTok Ban

The TikTok ban is getting closer by the day. 

Congress has even handed Apple and Google a formal letter urging TikTok’s removal from their app stores if the ban goes through. 

As things stand, ByteDance must sell TikTok to a non-Chinese entity if the ban isn’t overturned by Jan. 19th. ByteDance plans to appeal, of course, hoping to overturn or at least stall the action.  

The only two entities standing between TikTok and the ban: 

The Supreme Court. ByteDance hopes the court will freeze the law, pushing back the January 19 deadline, or even overturn the ban altogether—a long shot but possible if free speech concerns outweigh national security arguments.

Donald Trump. Surprisingly, Trump has hinted at plans to “rescue” TikTok, potentially delaying the ban or negotiating a sale to keep it running in the U.S. His stance could shift, but for now, he’s a key factor.

 Dr. Jonathan Snow broke down his predictions and corresponding action plans. 

Dr. Snow’s Scenarios

1. Full Sale to a U.S. Company: TikTok remains largely unchanged but loses Chinese ownership. Likelihood? Slim, given the algorithm’s centrality.

2. Trump Freezes the Ban: With a return to office, he could halt enforcement and extend the deadline. Unfortunately, he gets in on the 25th and the ban is on the 19th. 

3. Prolonged Review: The Supreme Court freezes the law, pushing the ban further down the road.

4. Partial Sale: TikTok is sold for parts, excluding the algorithm, leading to a diminished version of the platform.

5. Temporary Ban, Reversed by Trump: TikTok is briefly removed but reinstated for further analysis.

6. Permanent Ban: TikTok is removed from app stores and fades into U.S. obscurity, unable to update or maintain operations.

For Brands and Creators: How to Prepare

1. Diversify Channels: TikTok may remain a powerhouse, but hedging your bets is essential. Build a presence on other platforms like Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and Snapchat Spotlight.

2. Own Your Audience: Focus on growing email and SMS lists to ensure you have direct control over your followers, regardless of what happens to TikTok.

3. Stay Agile: Keep TikTok in your 2025 plans until proven otherwise. Many brands are still investing in TikTok Shop and seeing significant returns.

Takeaway: The TikTok saga is far from over, with the Supreme Court and political players potentially reshaping its fate. While uncertainty looms, brands should adopt a multi-platform strategy to future-proof their growth. For now, TikTok remains a pivotal tool—plan accordingly.

Not Converting? Ads Are Still Doing work

Neil Patel recently dropped a truth bomb: If you can’t get in front of your ideal customer at least three times, your marketing will fail. And if you’re a high ticket item, you should be thinking in the double digits.

For those selling product under $100, people need to interact with your brand about 8 times on average before they buy.

And for high-ticket items (think $10K+), it takes roughly 23 interactions!

What this means

The vast majority of brand interactions don’t lead to sales, and yet they are an essential part of acquiring that customer. 

They’re doing work. But how much work and how efficiently remains a question. No one has infinite money to pour into the top of the funnel, eventually waiting for it to compound at the other end.  

So how can you measure what’s truly working? Enter the holdout test—a method where you “hold back” a channel from a segment of your audience to see how it impacts overall conversions.

How to run a holdout test:

1. Split your audience: Create two groups—one that sees your ads on the channel and one that doesn’t.

2. Measure lift: Compare the performance of the two groups in terms of engagement, clicks, or conversions. If the test group (with ads) significantly outperforms the holdout group, you know the channel is pulling its weight.

3. Refine: Use these insights to adjust spend or messaging across your channels.

Be sure to give your test enough time and spend to find statistical significance. Take certain factors like purchase lag/consideration cycle into consideration. 

Other ways to evaluate channel impact:

• Incrementality testing: Use tools like Meta’s incrementality optimization to identify conversions that wouldn’t have happened without your ad.

• Multi-touch attribution: Invest in tools like Triple Whale or Northbeam to assign value to each customer interaction across their journey.

Takeaway: Don’t dismiss a marketing channel just because analytics don’t show direct sales in a tight one-day or seven-day window.

Use holdout tests and incrementality methods to reveal the hidden value behind every touchpoint. Bold ideas like these can make all the difference in your growth strategy.

Instagram’s New Reels Sandbox

Instagram just introduced Trial Reels. They let you share videos with non-followers. ONLY. 

Pretty crazy. 

For one, because you get to try stuff you would never have with your actual audience. 

Think: 

• Humor

• Low production

• Weird storytelling

For two, because you get out in front of new people by default. You could actually tailor this content for people who’ve never seen your brand as a strategy. 

Try it out:

• Create a reel. Follow the steps until it’s time to share.

• Before sharing the reel, tap the toggle to turn on Trial.

• Tap Share.

If you like how it performs with “strangers”, you can release it to everyone: 

• Tap on the View trial insights button in the Reels viewer.

• Tap Share to everyone.

Important note: your followers won’t see the Reel in your Reels page, but can see it elsewhere. 

Takeaway: time to test those off-kilter ideas you always wanted to. It’s also a new way to organically “prospect” for new audiences for your social presence. 

Quick hits

• New, less intrusive type of ad surfacing on YouTube.

• New, fun-looking, AI powered image editor that allows you to blend multiple images, by Google. 

• The next big marketing channel according to Cody Plofker.

• Step-by-step guide on how to make AI product showcase videos.